Power Ratings with very little data make for interesting results
by Andy Hilton, recruit757
The VHSL’s Power Rating system is imperfect as it is.
This Spring, we’ll use the power ratings to determine playoff teams after they’ve played shorter and more lopsided schedules than they’ve ever played.
There are going to be a lot of changes moving forward, considering that some teams have played two games, others one game, and still others haven’t played.
In the abbreviated playoffs, four teams from each reach will make the postseason, and there are a few exceptions. We can see already that there’s the potential for five or more teams to go undefeated in one region and someone will miss the postseason, especially when you consider that district schedules are incomplete.
For instance, this early, 1-0 Highland Springs would miss the playoffs in Region 5B. In Region 5C, 0-2 John R. Lewis High School would get the #4 seed because they have more losses to better opponents. We can expect all of this to change as more games are played.
Here we go:
Region 6A:
Franklin County 1-0 26.000
Ocean Lakes 1-0 26.000
Landstown 1-0 26.000
Oscar Smith 1-0 26.000
Thomas Dale 1-0 26.000
Western Branch 1-1 20.500
Grassfield 0-1 16.000
Cosby 0-1 15.000
James River 0-1 15.000
Tallwood 0-1 15.000
Kellam 0-1 15.000
Region 6B:
Freedom-PW 1-0 28.000
Gar-Field 1-0 28.000
Riverbend 2-0 28.000
Massaponax 2-0 28.000
Osbourn 1-0 26.000
Patriot 1-0 26.000
Potomac 2-0 26.000
Battlefield 1-0 26.000
Colonial Forge 1-1 21.000
Forest Park 1-1 20.500
C.D. Hylton 1-1 20.500
Colgan 0-2 15.500
Woodbridge 0-2 15.500
Unity Reed 0-1 15.000
John Champe 0-1 15.000
Osbourn Park 0-1 15.000
Region 6C:
West Springfield 1-0 28.000
Fairfax 1-0 28.000
Annandale 2-0 26.000
Lake Braddock 1-0 26.000
Robinson 1-0 26.000
South County 1-0 26.000
West Potomac 1-0 26.000
Mount Vernon 1-1 20.500
Falls Church 1-1 20.500
Justice 1-1 20.500
W.T. Woodson 16.000
Edison 0-2 15.500
Alexandria (TCW) 0-2 15.500
Hayfield 0-1 15.000
Region 6D:
McLean 1-0 28.000
Madison 1-0 28.000
Wakefield 2-0 26.000
Chantilly 1-0 26.000
Centreville 2-0 26.000
Oakton 1-1 20.500
Herndon 0-1 16.000
South Lakes 0-1 16.000
Washington-Liberty 0-1 16.000
Westfield 0-1 15.000
Yorktown 0-1 15.000
Langley 0-1 15.000
Marshall 0-1 15.000
_______
Region 5A:
Deep Creek 2-0 25.000
Maury 1-0 24.000
Cox 1-0 24.000
Salem 1-0 24.000
Bayside 1-0 24.000
Hickory 0-2 15.000
Indian River 0-1 14.000
Princess Anne 0-1 13.000
Kempsville 0-1 13.000
Granby 0-1 13.000
Norview 0-1 13.000
First Colonial 13.000
Bethel 0-0 0.000
Nansemond River 0-0 0.000
Kecoughtan 0-0 0.000
Gloucester 0-0 0.000
Green Run 0-0 0.000
Woodside 0-0 0.000
Region 5B:
Midlothian 1-0 26.000
Clover Hill 1-0 26.000
Hermitage 1-0 26.000
Glen Allen 2-0 25.000
Deep Run 1-0 24.000
Highland Springs 1-0 24.000
Prince George 1-0 24.000
Douglas Freeman 1-1 19.000
Varina 1-1 18.500
J.R. Tucker 0-2 13.500
Henrico 0-1 13.500
L.C. Bird 0-1 13.500
Atlee 0-1 13.000
Manchester 0-1 13.000
Mills Godwin 0-2 13.000
Matoaca 0-0 0.000
Meadowbrook 0-0 0.000
Region 5C:
Stone Bridge 1-0 24.000
Briar Woods 1-0 24.000
Rock Ridge 1-0 24.000
John R. Lewis 0-2 15.000
Woodgrove 0-1 13.000
Riverside 0-1 13.000
Freedom (LC) 0-0 0.000
Potomac Falls 0-0 0.000
Region 5D:
Albemarle 1-0 26.000
Patrick Henry-ROA 2-0 24.000
Mountain View 1-1 20.000
Stafford 0-1 16.000
Brooke Point 0-2 15.500
North Stafford 0-1 13.000
Harrisonburg 0-0 0.000
William Fleming 0-0 0.000
_______
Region 4A:
Great Bridge 1-0 28.000
Lake Taylor 1-0 24.000
Churchland 1-0 24.000
Warhill 1-0 22.000
Wilson 0-1 11.000
Jamestown 0-1 11.000
Grafton 0-1 11.000
Warwick 0-0 0.000
King’s Fork 0-0 0.000
Hampton 0-0 0.000
Menchville 0-0 0.000
Heritage 0-0 0.000
Denbigh 0-0 0.000
Smithfield 0-0 0.000
Region 4B:
Patrick Henry-ASH 1-0 24.000
King George 1-0 24.000
Monacan 1-0 24.000
Powhatan 1-0 24.000
Eastern View 2-0 22.000
Courtland 2-0 22.000
Louisa 2-0 22.000
Hanover 1-0 22.000
Chancellor 1-1 16.500
Dinwiddie 0-1 13.000
Orange 0-1 12.000
Caroline 0-2 12.000
Spotsylvania 0-2 11.500
Mechanicsville 0-1 11.000
Region 4C:
Broad Run 1-0 24.000
Kettle Run 1-0 22.000
Fauquier 2-0 22.000
Tuscarora 1-0 22.000
Loudoun County 1-1 17.500
Heritage (LC) 1-1 16.500
Park View (St) 0-1 13.000
Liberty (Beal) 0-1 12.000
Culpeper 0-1 12.000
Loudoun Valley 0-2 11.000
Handley 0-1 11.000
Dominion 0-1 11.000
James Wood 0-0 0.000
Region 4D:
Pulaski 2-0 22.000
Amherst 1-0 22.000
Salem 2-0 22.000
Jefferson Forest 1-0 22.000
Blacksburg 0-2 13.000
E.C. Glass 0-1 11.000
GW-Danville 0-1 11.000
Halifax 0-0 0.000
_______
Region 3A:
Norcom 1-0 22.000
York 1-0 22.000
New Kent 1-0 22.000
Lafayette 1-0 20.000
Hopewell 1-0 20.000
Petersburg 0-1 15.000
Booker T. 0-1 13.000
Colonial Heights 0-1 9.000
Tabb 0-1 9.000
Phoebus 0-0 0.000
Lakeland 0-0 0.000
Southampton 0-0 0.000
Region 3B:
Independence 1-0 22.000
Brentsville 2-0 21.000
Central-Woodstock 1-0 20.000
William Monroe 1-0 20.000
Goochland 1-0 20.000
Lightridge 1-1 16.5000
George Mason 1-1 15.000
James Monroe 0-1 12.000
Warren County 0-1 10.000
Manassas Park 0-2 9.000
Skyline 0-1 9.000
Region 3C:
Heritage(LYN) 1-0 20.000
Brookville 1-0 20.000
Rockbridge 1-0 20.000
Wilson Memorial 1-0 20.000
Fluvanna 1-0 20.000
Turner Ashby 1-0 20.000
Broadway 1-0 20.000
Monticello 1-1 16.500
Rustburg 0-1 11.000
Charlottesville 0-2 10.500
Liberty Christian 0-1 9.000
Fort Defiance 0-1 9.000
Spotswood 0-1 9.000
Waynesboro 0-1 9.000
Western Albemarle 0-1 9.000
Liberty (BED) 0-1 9.000
Region 3D:
Lord Botetourt 1-0 22.000
Carroll County 2-0 20.000
Wiliam Byrd 1-0 20.000
Abingdon 1-0 20.000
Northside 0-1 15.000
Hidden Valley 0-2 13.000
Christiansburg 0-1 12.000
Cave Spring 0-1 12.000
Bassett 0-1 10.000
Magna Vista 0-1 9.000
Tunstall 0-0 0.000
Staunton River 0-0 0.000
______
Region 2A:
King William 1-0 18.000
Bruton 0-1 11.000
Amelia 0-1 9.000
Poquoson 0-0 0.000
Nottoway 0-0 0.000
Arcadia 0-0 0.000
Windsor 0-0 0.000
Nandua 0-0 0.000
Randolph-Henry 0-0 0.000
Region 2B:
Clarke County 1-0 18.000
Stuarts Draft 1-0 18.000
Strasburg 1-0 18.000
Staunton 1-0 18.000
Buffalo Gap 1-0 18.000
East Rockingham 0-2 8.000
Luray 0-1 7.000
Madison County 0-1 7.000
Stonewall Jackson 0-1 7.000
Page County 0-0 0.000
Region 2C:
James River(B) 1-0 18.000
Giles 1-0 18.000
Apppomattox 1-0 18.000
Floyd County 0-2 8.500
Glenvar 0-1 7.000
Nelson County 0-1 7.000
Alleghany 0-1 7.000
Fort Chiswell 0-1 7.000
Martinsville 0-0 0.000
Dan River 0.000
Radford 0-0 0.000
Gretna 0-0 0.000
Chatham 0-0 0.000
Patrick County 0-0 0.000
Region 2D:
Central-Wise 1-0 20.000
Virginia 1-0 20.000
Marion 1-0 20.000
Lebanon 1-0 18.000
Graham 1-0 18.000
Union 1-0 18.000
John Battle 1-0 18.000
Ridgeview 1-1 12.5000
Gate City 0-2 8.000
Lee 0-1 7.000
Tazewell 0-1 7.000
Richlands 0-1 7.000
_______
Region 1A
King and Queen 1-0 16.000
Mathews 0-1 7.000
West Point 0-1 5.000
Northumberland 0-0 0.000
Lancaster 0-0 0.000
Rapphannock 0-0 0.000
Northampton 0-0 0.000
Region 1B:
Riverheads 1-0 18.000
William Campbell 1-0 18.000
Altavista 0-1 7.000
Cumberland 0-0 0.000
Central(L) 0-0 0.000
Franklin 0-0 0.000
Rapphannock County 0-0 0.000
Region 1C:
Auburn 1-0 18.000
Grayson County 1-0 18.000
Galax 1-0 16.000
Narrows 1-0 16.000
Eastern Montgomery 1-1 10.500
Parry McCluer 0-1 6.000
Bath 0-1 6.000
Bland 0-1 5.000
Covington 0-1 5.000
George Wythe (W) 0-0 0.000
Region 1D:
Eastside 1-0 18.000
Rural Retreat 1-0 18.000
Castlewood 1-0 16.000
Twin Valley 1-0 16.000
Grundy 1-1 11.500
Chilhowie 1-1 11.500
Hurley 1-1 10.500
Holston 1-1 10.500
Honaker 0-2 6.000
Thomas Walker 0-1 5.000
J.I. Burton 0-1 5.000
Northwood 0-1 5.000
Rye Cove 0-1 5.000
Patrick Henry-GS 0-1 5.000
Twin Springs 0-0 0.000
